4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to PHI 29, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model