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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 37 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP