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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 40

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +1.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model