4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model