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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NO
52.3%
PIT
47.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PIT on 8 more days rest than NO
  • PIT defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.141 vs Andy Dalton (NO) -0.014 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
PIT 19
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Mark Ingram RB Out Knee
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Erik McCoy C Out Calf
Andrus Peat G Out Triceps
Pete Werner LB Out Ankle
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Questionable Illness
Marcus Maye S Questionable Abdomen
P.J. Williams CB Questionable Illness
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Calf

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out appendix
William Jackson CB Out Back
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring
Kevin Dotson G Questionable Abdomen
Malik Reed LB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 10
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:09 TD PIT (5:09) (No Huddle) 14-G.Pickens right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 14:20 FG PIT (14:20) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NO 0 – PIT 10
  • Q2 06:44 FG NO (6:44) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 3 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:23 TD NO (:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – PIT 10
  • Q4 13:47 FG PIT (13:47) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NO 10 – PIT 13
  • Q4 08:40 TD PIT (8:40) 8-K.Pickett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – PIT 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to NO 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to PIT 43, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 56%

    (7:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 30-J.Warren to NO 30 for 7 yards (26-P.Williams).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (14:20) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:45) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to NO 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (6:44) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 37%

    (2:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to NO 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 14.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to PIT 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 82-S.Sims to PIT 30 for 8 yards (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray). PENALTY on PIT-27-M.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to PIT 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (13:47) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:48) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to NO 34 for no gain (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (5:37) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.