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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model