4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to NO 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.11 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP