Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(5:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to PIT 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.55 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model