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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to NO 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model