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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP