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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model