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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 91

New Orleans Saints 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to PIT 43, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model