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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 37

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 30-J.Warren to NO 30 for 7 yards (26-P.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model