4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

JAX
32.3%
KC
67.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.286 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

JAX

Rayshawn Jenkins S Questionable Concussion

KC

Mecole Hardman WR Out Abdomen
Jerick McKinnon RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
KC 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:39 TD KC (3:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 10:01 TD KC (10:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:51 TD KC (:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – KC 20
  • Q2 00:15 TD JAX (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – KC 20
  • Q3 05:50 FG JAX (5:50) 10-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – KC 20
  • Q3 00:41 TD KC (:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – KC 26
  • Q4 05:32 TD JAX (5:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (12:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 44%

    (6:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to KC 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 46 for 19 yards (1-J.McKinnon, 6-B.Cook). KC-29-C.Lammons was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 72%

    (11:23) 10-R.Patterson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to KC 37, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to JAX 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-U.Amadi.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to KC 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 14 for 7 yards (50-S.Quarterman; 42-A.Wingard).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%

    (11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to KC 32 for 8 yards (23-J.Williams).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (5:50) 10-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

    (12:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 7 for 4 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 65%

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Z.Jones to KC 26 for 10 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 46%

    (2:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to JAX 39 for 4 yards (48-C.Muma).