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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to KC 32 for 8 yards (23-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model