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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Z.Jones to KC 26 for 10 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model