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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.80 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP