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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to KC 37, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model