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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP