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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to KC 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 14 for 7 yards (50-S.Quarterman; 42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP