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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 7 for 4 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model