Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 46 for 19 yards (1-J.McKinnon, 6-B.Cook). KC-29-C.Lammons was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.46 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model