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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-11-06 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TEN
11.8%
KC
88.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.328 vs Malik Willis (TEN) -0.817 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.234 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • KC on 7 more days rest than TEN
  • KC defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17
–
KC 30
Projected margin: KC by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Tory Carter FB Out Neck
Amani Hooker S Out Shoulder
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Illness
Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Ankle
Kevin Strong DE Questionable Ankle
Ryan Tannehill QB Questionable Ankle

KC

Joe Fortson TE Out Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
KC 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:50 FG KC (6:50) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. TEN 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 10:51 TD TEN (10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – KC 9
  • Q2 05:28 TD TEN (5:28) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. TEN 13 – KC 9
  • Q3 10:03 FG TEN (10:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 17 – KC 9
  • Q4 03:05 TD KC (3:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – KC 15
  • Q5 04:07 FG KC (4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. TEN 17 – KC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:50) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 57%

    (4:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to KC 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at KC 21 for 17 yards (25-H.Haskins).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to TEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to TEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-R.Woods to TEN 39 for 11 yards (85-M.Kemp; 6-B.Cook).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:04) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-86-K.Rader. PENALTY on KC-29-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at KC 3.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to TEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to KC 25, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 84%

    (10:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (5:21) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to KC 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 40 for 20 yards (30-T.Avery).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (:51) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to KC 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 36 for 15 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TEN 45, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-R.Woods to TEN 46 for 1 yard (85-M.Kemp). PENALTY on KC-29-C.Lammons, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%

    (10:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to KC 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to KC 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman to KC 36 for no gain (25-H.Haskins; 53-D.Cole).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:01) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (28-J.Kalu; 93-T.Tart).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 23%

    (:43) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-41-J.Winchester, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 22 yards (56-M.Rice).