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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:51) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model