Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to KC 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman to KC 36 for no gain (25-H.Haskins; 53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 87, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model