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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model