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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 39

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to KC 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-Ju.Watson pushed ob at KC 21 for 17 yards (25-H.Haskins).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model