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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to KC 25, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.94 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP