Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-86-K.Rader. PENALTY on KC-29-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at KC 3.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model