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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to KC 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model