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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-41-J.Winchester, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -1.34 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model