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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CLE
45.5%
BAL
54.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.042 vs Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.047 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

Joe Haeg T Out Concussion
Wyatt Teller G Out Calf
Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle
Isaac Rochell DE Questionable Knee

BAL

J.K. Dobbins RB Out Knee
Justin Houston LB Questionable Groin
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Illness
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Knee
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Knee
Rashod Bateman WR Questionable Foot
Ben Cleveland G Questionable Foot
Morgan Moses T Questionable Heel
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 TD CLE (8:26) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 03:31 FG BAL (3:31) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 7 – BAL 3
  • Q1 00:22 FG CLE (:22) 3-C.York 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – BAL 3
  • Q2 10:09 FG BAL (10:09) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 10 – BAL 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 12
  • Q3 07:43 TD BAL (7:43) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BAL 19
  • Q3 02:44 FG CLE (2:44) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 13 – BAL 20
  • Q4 11:29 FG BAL (11:29) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CLE 13 – BAL 23
  • Q4 09:04 TD CLE (9:04) (No Huddle) 27-K.Hunt right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (10:00) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BAL 8 for 1 yard (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (3:31) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (:22) 3-C.York 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:17) 11-J.Stout punts 69 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 12 for 6 yards (26-G.Stone).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to CLE 21 for 46 yards (44-S.Takitaki).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (10:09) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%

    (:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-H.Miller.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (7:43) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (2:44) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 31%

    (13:35) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at CLE 38 for 11 yards (54-D.Jones). 89-M.Andrews lines up behind center and pitches to 8-L.Jackson who lined up at RB.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

    (11:29) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (:24) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.