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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 1
Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 10
What Actually Happened
(7:43) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK
+2.17 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
