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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(13:35) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at CLE 38 for 11 yards (54-D.Jones). 89-M.Andrews lines up behind center and pitches to 8-L.Jackson who lined up at RB.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model