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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:22) 3-C.York 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model