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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-H.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.07 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model