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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.13 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model