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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model