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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(:24) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP