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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to BAL 8 for 1 yard (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model