4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Monday 2022-10-24 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CHI
30.4%
NE
69.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Mac Jones (NE) +0.121 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.201 EPA/dropback (NE starting Mac Jones in place of Bailey Zappe)
  • CHI offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than NE
  • NE offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
NE 25
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CHI

No players on the report.

NE

Shaun Wade CB Questionable Illness
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Hamstring
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Kendrick Bourne WR Questionable Toe
Lawrence Guy DT Questionable Shoulder
Anfernee Jennings DT Questionable Calf
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Mac Jones QB Questionable Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Illness
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
Josh Uche LB Questionable Hamstring
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 33
–
NE 14

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG CHI (9:06) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 02:16 TD CHI (2:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – NE 0
  • Q2 09:52 TD NE (9:52) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – NE 6
  • Q2 06:08 TD NE (6:08) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-64-M.Pennel was injured during the play. CHI 10 – NE 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD CHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. CHI 16 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 20 – NE 14
  • Q3 09:51 FG CHI (9:51) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 23 – NE 14
  • Q3 03:54 FG CHI (3:54) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 26 – NE 14
  • Q4 12:17 TD CHI (12:17) 71-R.Reiff reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 32 – NE 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:05) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (9:06) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to CHI 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 44 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 19 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:05) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at NE 45 for 9 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (9:51) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CHI 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 32. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 35 for 3 yards (3-J.Peppers). PENALTY on CHI-29-D.Cruikshank, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 76%

    (3:54) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (3-J.Peppers).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (4:41) 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to NE 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 14 for 3 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%

    (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 48. 6-K.Gordon to NE 10 for 42 yards (11-T.Thornton).