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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 20

Chicago Bears 20 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model