Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 79

New England Patriots 14 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CHI 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 32. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 35 for 3 yards (3-J.Peppers). PENALTY on CHI-29-D.Cruikshank, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model