4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 14 – Chicago Bears 26

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (3-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP