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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 78

New England Patriots 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model