Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(6:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to CHI 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 44 for 6 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.68 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model