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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 32

Chicago Bears 23 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP