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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 46

Chicago Bears 33 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to NE 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 14 for 3 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP