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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 50

New England Patriots 14 – Chicago Bears 33

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 48. 6-K.Gordon to NE 10 for 42 yards (11-T.Thornton).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.82 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model