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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Thursday 2022-10-13 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

WAS
42.1%
CHI
57.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.171 vs Carson Wentz (WAS) -0.077 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

WAS

Percy Butler S Out Quadricep
Samuel Cosmi T Out Finger
Jahan Dotson WR Out Hamstring
William Jackson CB Out Back
Logan Thomas TE Out Calf
Jonathan Williams RB Out Knee
Dyami Brown WR Questionable Groin

CHI

Dane Cruikshank S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 12
–
CHI 7

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:50 FG WAS (:50) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – CHI 0
  • Q3 07:23 TD CHI (7:23) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 18-D.Pettis for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Sweat]. Penalty on WAS, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. WAS 3 – CHI 6
  • Q4 14:55 FG WAS (14:55) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – CHI 7
  • Q4 07:25 TD WAS (7:25) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – CHI 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:27) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to CHI 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones to CHI 34 for 10 yards (88-A.Rogers; 39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (5:12) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to WAS 19 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:13) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones to CHI 31 for 6 yards (47-K.Hudson; 51-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (11:25) 24-K.Herbert left guard to WAS 1 for no gain (90-M.Sweat; 55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:14) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 39%

    (6:09) 16-T.Gill punts 27 yards to WAS 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:54) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CHI 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 12-V.Jones.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:34) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to WAS 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 33 for 14 yards (35-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (:50) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:26) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to CHI 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (14:55) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:49) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-D.Milne to WAS 33 for 14 yards (24-K.Herbert).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:18) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to CHI 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at CHI 6.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short middle to 17-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (1:54) 6-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:35) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 11-D.Mooney pushed ob at WAS 1 for 3 yards (25-B.St-Juste).